New World Same Humans #10
Do old people own the future? Lockdown reflections. The power of local in a globalised world.
Welcome to New World Same Humans, a weekly newsletter on trends, technology, and society by David Mattin.
The pandemic has dissolved time.
Cities have been stilled and millions of us are working from home. Our daily routines are broken; now we exist in a strange kind of stasis. Meanwhile our screens bring news of exponential growth and accelerated social change. No wonder we're dizzy.
Yes, this crisis is all consuming. But despite that, there is a reality beyond it. The pandemic is interacting with long-running trends that have been shaping our world for decades.
This week I got to thinking about two of those trends. First, longer lifespans and how they will change society in ways we’re only beginning to consider. Second, globalisation and how we must reimagine the relationship between local and global in a highly networked world.
New age thinking
The coronavirus is an unpredictable enemy. The reasons it causes a fatal illness in some people, while others don’t even know they have it, are poorly understood. But we all know the virus is much more dangerous to one group in particular: the old.
In this way the pandemic is an unwelcome reminder of a very welcome phenomenon. All over the world, people are living longer. Couple that with low fertility rates and the result is that the human tribe is ageing. Globally, the population aged 65 and over is growing faster than any other age group. The UN calls ageing populations ‘one of the most significant social transformations of the 21st-century.’ Look around in the first months of 2020 and it’s easy to see why.
When it comes to the virus, countries with the oldest populations face a heightened challenge. See Italy, which has the second oldest population in the world.
But look beyond the pandemic (as hard as that can feel right now) and you’ll find other powerful reminders of this transformation. In the US, the race to be the Democratic presidential nominee is being contested by a 78-year-old Bernie Sanders and his younger rival, 77-year-old Joe Biden. The winner will go to the polls in November against a 73-year-old incumbent. Rising life expectancy means many have the chance to be productive for longer: great news. But the age profile of this race, and of US politics more generally, is prompting some to ask if America is calcifying into a gerontocracy in which it’s increasingly difficult for anyone other than (rich, white, male) old people to gain power.
Indeed, look closer at Biden vs Sanders and the social impacts of longer lives becomes even more evident. In Michigan earlier this month Sanders won younger voters by a crashing margin of 76-19, while Biden won those over 65 by 71-20. As the national race stands now, Biden looks set to win. The transformation of American society that Sanders and his young supporters want to enact is being prevented by seniors who prefer a steady-as-she-goes approach.
Of course, older voters are perfectly entitled to have their say. And if they prevail, well, that’s democracy. But it’s worth noticing what’s happening in the US now, and what it might mean for the way our societies evolve in the decades ahead.
Specifically, look at the way older populations are breaking our model of generational social change. Our instincts tend to tell us that when a new generation arrives with a set of Big Ideas, the older generation grumbles, resists somewhat, but is eventually forced to move over and make room for the new. But that phenomenon has always been, in part, demographically driven. And our understanding of it is shaped by the youth-driven social revolutions of the previous century. In the 1960s and 70s, the post-war baby boomers successfully enacted a social revolution thanks in part to the fact that there were so many of them; they had the numbers needed to overturn their disapproving parents and grandparents. Now, in affluent populations with an old population structure and a low birth rate, that template is being broken. In the 21st-century we’ll have to get used to the idea that it’s often older people – who are numerous, love to vote, and have had time to acquire resources and influence – who drive the culture.
Indeed, as TrendWatching pointed out long ago in a trend briefing on the new era of post-demographics, many of our traditional assumptions about the old and young are being broken. The ultimate signal? Older people are even shouldering their way in to the conversation when it comes to cool.
Extended lifespans are, of course, a reason to be jubilant. But they should also prompt a reengineering of many longstanding social and political settlements.
Take life stages. Our current model – emerge from education at 21, work continually, retire at 65 – often asks people to work most intensely right when they are most engaged in childcare, and pays no attention to the fact that many adults can now remain productive well into their 70s. Instead, we should do more to support the new model that is already emerging: the 20s as a period of exploration, a career break in the late 20s and early 30s for childcare if relevant, and then a graduated re-entry into a career path, with many saving their most intense working years for their late 40s and beyond, when the children have left home.
Or consider voting. In the US, the electoral college is intended to weight voting so that populous states such as New York, and the special concerns they generate, don’t dominate the national election. What about a democratic system that weights votes by age – with young voters scoring more than older ones – so that the bulging 65+ demographic doesn’t have everything its own way? Proponents point out that younger voters must live with the consequences of national decisions – on, for example, climate change – for much longer than their older counterparts, who have cause to prioritize now over a later that they won’t ever see. So shouldn’t younger citizens have more of a say? Let’s see if Bernie wants to suggest that.
Conversely, though, we also need to ditch widespread outdated attitudes when it comes to the old. Even as the US presidential race is contested by men in their 70s, the truth is that many other older people face age-based prejudice that prevents them from living the lives they are capable of, and contributing everything they can. Mainstream global culture is obsessed with youth, and all too often buys into the false idea that only the young can be innovative, inspired, or radical. In fact, emerging evidence shows the later years can be a time of continued brain development, learning and creativity if we let it. So, let’s let it.
In short, an ageing world presents new challenges, but huge new opportunities too. We must confront the former with a clear head, and come to the latter with an open mind. Personally and collectively, there is much to gain from a world in which those with deep experience can remain productive and engaged. But if lifespans of 100+ are going to become commonplace – and it looks as though that’s where we’re heading – we also need new models of inter-generational cooperation and justice.
Message in a bottle
It’s the first week of proper corona-lockdown here in the UK (yes, we came to it late).
In London once-teeming streets are now subdued. The quiet is otherworldly. If eerie urban landscapes are your thing, see this stunning New York Times photo series depicting empty city streets around the world this week.
Confined as I am to my home and its local surroundings, NWSH is my message in a bottle.
You’re reading this, which means my message washed up on your shore. So reply at newworldsamehumans@gmail.com (hitting reply to this email won’t work) and say hi! I’ll send a special mid-week to you note in return.
Local area network
A quick note on another social transformation happening right now.
Across the globe and street by street, citizens are banding together. The coronavirus outbreak has in turn provoked an outbreak of neighbourliness. A million new WhatsApp groups are taking bloom. Their constant refrain: do you need someone to do your shopping?
There’s a strange symmetry about all this. It took a pandemic that began in China, and that traversed the networks of our globalised world, to get the inhabitants of my street in London to establish their own messaging channel. Coronavirus has reminded us of the challenges posed by a highly interconnected planet. But it has also reminded millions of something we’d forgotten: the power and usefulness of local community.
Yes, globalisation has brought with it immense material and cultural benefits. But as the British scientist and futurist Martin Rees points out, a highly networked world also creates new vulnerabilities – including to the rapid spread of infectious disease – that we’re only beginning to understand. (See NWSH #2 for more on Rees and his argument; written as news of an epidemic was emerging from Wuhan, that instalment feels something like a museum piece now).
For decades the middle classes in the affluent world have luxuriated in the blessings of summer fruit all year round, cheap clothes from developing markets, and outsourced manufacturing and knowledge work. Meanwhile the online space has helped shape an increasingly homogenised global culture, which alienates us from a sense of local belonging.
But when millions are confined to their homes, global food supply chains are interrupted, and local factories can’t produce enough surgical masks, the risks associated with neglecting local in favour of global become all too evident. And it turns out that during the most acute global crisis since WWII, your favourite YouTube influencers can’t watch your children, pop to the shops for you, or check on an elderly relative. For that, you need neighbours. Ideally neighbours you actually speak to.
Those who make these arguments now should not be mistaken for simple-minded anti-globalists; that’s certainly not me. There’s no denying that globalisation has been an amazing force for good on many fronts, and has helped lift millions in the developing world out of poverty. But once this crisis is over we need to forge a new style of globalisation. One that allows us to reap the benefits of a highly connected world while also protecting us from the new harms that this kind of world presents. And a key part of that must be a reinvigoration of local community. We could start with new forms of local government, and more powers for the institutions of that government. But we’ll also need a new army of capable and engaged citizens, who are as excited about local community as they are about the global village.
Those citizens can draw motivation from a simple human truth. That is, when it really matters it’s often the people and resources closest to you that are most able to come to your aid. And let’s not forget that for many people in our societies life isn’t difficult because of the pandemic: it was difficult before. If we fail to create new systems that shelter people from the harms of a globalised world, we’ll leave the playing field to cynical populists and their false promises. There is much work to do after the Great Reset. And forging a new relationship between local and global should be a big part of it.
Until next week
I’ve stayed long enough. From my corner of the world, here's wishing you a peaceful week ahead.
Thanks for reading,
David.
P.S: Let young and old alike sing the praises of Nikki Ritmeijer, who designed the illustrations in this email.